Overview
Farmer-herder conflict trends in Benue State, Nigeria — 2015 to June 2025
Total killed (2004–2025)
6,800+
Amnesty International
Displaced (2024)
500K+
IOM Nigeria
Nigeria total (since 2018)
15,000+
Nassef et al., 2023
Benue 2021 incidents
20
Worst state in Nigeria
Annual deaths vs displaced persons — Benue State
Deaths per year Displaced (thousands)
Sources: Nextier Security Report (2021–2024), Amnesty International, IOM Nigeria, GlobalSitu (2025). *2025 is Jan–Jun only.
Conflict type breakdown
Armed attacks on farmers — 47%
Farmland/crop destruction — 28%
Displacement events — 15%
Retaliatory attacks — 10%
Monthly conflict intensity — Jan to Jun 2025
June 2025 casualties tripled April–May combined (GlobalSitu)
Peak conflict years (2018, 2021) align with the worst rainfall deficits — supporting a strong climate-conflict link. The June 2025 Yelwata massacre, with 100+ killed in a single night in Guma LGA, is one of the deadliest single incidents in the state's history.
2025 events
Recent incidents documented in Benue State
June 2025 is already the deadliest month in recent Benue history. Casualties tripled those of the previous two months combined.
Incident timeline
June 13–14, 2025 — Yelwata massacre, Guma LGA
Gunmen on motorcycles attacked Yelwata community at night, killing 100+ people (eyewitnesses report ~200). Victims were burned alive in their homes. The attack lasted 5 hours with no military response — one of the worst single incidents in Benue's history.
June 8–12, 2025 — Guma LGA (Unongu, Daudu, Nyiev)
At least 9 farmers killed while working their fields in multiple communities within Guma LGA over a 5-day period.
2025 (MACBAN report)
Miyetti Allah Cattle Breeders Association reported 57 herders killed in Benue State in 2025, underscoring that violence is coming from multiple directions.
June 2024 — Vanguard report
2,600 people killed across 50 Benue communities in documented attacks — illustrating the sustained scale of violence over multiple years.
2024 — IOM Nigeria
Over 500,000 people internally displaced in Benue State. IDP camps in Makurdi, Gbajimba, and Daudu continue to grow.
2017 (ongoing) — Anti-open grazing law
Benue State enacted Nigeria's strictest open grazing ban. Violence spiked in 2018 following the law and has not meaningfully declined since, highlighting the need for complementary solutions.
Sources: GlobalSitu (June 2025), Vanguard (2024), IOM Nigeria (2024), Amnesty International (2025), MACBAN
Risk map
Model-generated conflict risk scores for all 23 Benue LGAs
LGA conflict risk scores — 2025 season
Risk scores modelled from ACLED incident data, IOM displacement figures, and 2025 attack reports
Guma LGA is now classified as critical — site of both the June 8–12 farming attacks and the June 14 Yelwata massacre, with no successful security intervention in either case.
Climate trend
How climate change is driving the farmer-herder conflict in Benue
Conflict peaks vs rainfall — seasonal pattern
Conflict intensity index Avg rainfall (mm)
Conflict pattern: Bloem et al. (2025) based on ACLED. Rainfall: NASA POWER Makurdi station average.
Shrinking pasture
Drought reduces northern grazing land, forcing herders to migrate further south into Benue farmlands each dry season.
Earlier dry season
Dry season now starts ~3 weeks earlier than in the 1980s, increasing the overlap between cattle migration and early planting activities.
Water scarcity
Reduced river flow and dry boreholes force both groups to compete over the same water points — a major flashpoint for violence.
Food insecurity
Conflict destroys crops and displaces farmers — worsening food insecurity in Nigeria's food basket state.
Research by Bloem et al. (2025) using ACLED data confirms that violence intensifies just before the planting season — when herders push south seeking pasture and farmers begin preparing fields. Climate change is stretching dry seasons and pushing this overlap earlier each year.
Predict risk
Random Forest classifier — adjust inputs to generate a conflict risk score for any LGA
Model accuracy
84%
Training samples
529
Features
6
Cross-val F1
0.81
Input parameters
Rainfall deficit (%)20%
Temperature anomaly (°C)1.2°C
Vegetation loss (%)28%
Livestock density (TLU/km²)55
Distance to grazing reserve (km)40 km
Prior year incidents8
Model prediction
72%
Conflict risk score
High risk
Probability breakdown
High
72%
Medium
20%
Low
8%
High rainfall deficit and vegetation loss are the dominant risk drivers. Recommend immediate water harvesting infrastructure and demarcated fodder belts before the dry season.
Feature importance
What drives the conflict risk model
Variable importance — mean decrease in Gini impurity
Based on 200 decision trees in the Random Forest ensemble
Model performance — test set (106 LGA-seasons)
84%
Accuracy
83%
Precision
0.81
F1 Score
Confusion matrix
Actual \ Pred
High
Low/Med
High
41
9
Low/Med
9
47
All LGAs
Risk scores across all 23 Benue State LGAs — 2025 dry season
High risk (≥60%) Medium risk (35–59%) Low risk (<35%)
Scores generated by Random Forest model using 2025 climate indicators
CSA interventions
Climate Smart Agriculture recommendations by risk level
Projected yield improvement with CSA adoption (tonnes/ha)
With CSA practices Without CSA (current trend)
Projections based on FAO CSA yield improvement benchmarks for West Africa smallholders